It seems like there are things BNSF and CSX could do to partner more closely that fall short of a merger. I just find it hard to see Buffett getting excited about a deal at 25x earnings which might be what it takes to make it happen in the current environment. He could wait — a recession could create a better opportunity. It’s not like anyone else would jump in to buy CSX. Wouldn’t be possible politically for a Canadian rail to buy it.
It would be interesting to see if there are ways for BNSF and CSX to partner — and reduce times down to what Union Pacific will offer — without a high-priced merger.
Thanks! I've never really followed CSX closely, but there is indeed an activist investor there who seems to be pushing for either a merger or management overhaul.
I haven't seen any speculation about either of the Canadian railroads as merger options. I wonder if that would be more difficult from a regulatory approval perspective.
It is hard to imagine the Trump Administration tolerating the optics of a Canadian railroad acquiring CSX. I suspect that the Union Pacific/Norfolk merger will get through because the optics of an American transcontinental railroad can be viewed/sold as a positive sign of American greatness. But even the companies a forecasting a process that will extend into 2027.
Sorry for the confusion, I meant Burlington making an offer for CNI. It may not face the same scrutiny at least in the US.
After all, Canada is supposed to become the next US State either before or after Greenland, right? 😀
I know there friendships have cooled, but Bill Gates still owns a sizable stake in CNI. I believe it’s over 12% off the top of my head (for what that is worth).
Also, take a look at the maps. A long shot, but perhaps it also helps open the Keystone Pipeline as well, which was spun off by TC Energy into a new company South Bow Energy.
One thing we can all count on is that Greg & Warren will not be pressured by anyone into doing a CSX deal if it doesn't make sense to BNSF and BRK shareholders.
It seems like there are things BNSF and CSX could do to partner more closely that fall short of a merger. I just find it hard to see Buffett getting excited about a deal at 25x earnings which might be what it takes to make it happen in the current environment. He could wait — a recession could create a better opportunity. It’s not like anyone else would jump in to buy CSX. Wouldn’t be possible politically for a Canadian rail to buy it.
It would be interesting to see if there are ways for BNSF and CSX to partner — and reduce times down to what Union Pacific will offer — without a high-priced merger.
Isn’t there an activist pushing CSX to get its act together and pushing for a merger or acquisition? I believe that is why CSX has been on the rise.
Would CNI make sense? It appears to be cheaper. Just throwing that out there for thoughts.
Excellent article.
Thanks! I've never really followed CSX closely, but there is indeed an activist investor there who seems to be pushing for either a merger or management overhaul.
I haven't seen any speculation about either of the Canadian railroads as merger options. I wonder if that would be more difficult from a regulatory approval perspective.
It is hard to imagine the Trump Administration tolerating the optics of a Canadian railroad acquiring CSX. I suspect that the Union Pacific/Norfolk merger will get through because the optics of an American transcontinental railroad can be viewed/sold as a positive sign of American greatness. But even the companies a forecasting a process that will extend into 2027.
Sorry for the confusion, I meant Burlington making an offer for CNI. It may not face the same scrutiny at least in the US.
After all, Canada is supposed to become the next US State either before or after Greenland, right? 😀
I know there friendships have cooled, but Bill Gates still owns a sizable stake in CNI. I believe it’s over 12% off the top of my head (for what that is worth).
Also, take a look at the maps. A long shot, but perhaps it also helps open the Keystone Pipeline as well, which was spun off by TC Energy into a new company South Bow Energy.
One thing we can all count on is that Greg & Warren will not be pressured by anyone into doing a CSX deal if it doesn't make sense to BNSF and BRK shareholders.
Agreed! I’m very happy to leave these big decisions up to them.
Cannot wait for your coverage of the Q2 report!!! Keep it up!
Thanks Igor! Much appreciated :)
Good stuff re BNSF
Thanks Frank!